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Fuels of the Future for vision 2030

by with No Comment Blog

Speaking at CERA Week in Houston, Maarten Wetselaar, Shell Integrated Gas & New Energies Director, argues that the future of transport fuels will show a new and evolving balance between different fuels, traditional and new, depending on customers’ needs and local availability.

Ladies and gentlemen,

Anthony Lucas struck oil in Spindletop, around 80 miles from here, in 1901. Oil erupted from the earth at a rate of 100,000 barrels a day for nine days straight. This was a big moment for Texas … a big moment for the USA… and a big moment for transport, as Dan [Yergin] has shown in his book The Prize. Because the oil drilling frenzy that followed went on to dramatically boost worldwide oil production and kick off a rivalry between transport fuels.

I think we all know which fuel won. Oil had many advantages compared to other fuels. Internal combustion engines started much faster than steam engines… they did not require a guy constantly shovelling coal in a furnace… and unlike a horse, an internal combustion engine could not run away or drop dead from an infection . The only limiting factors for gasoline were the price, that quickly went down… and the production capacity, that quickly went up. In 1901, when Anthony Lucas struck oil, there were around 4000 horse carriage builders in the US. By the end of the 1920s, only 90 were left. From planes to trains, barges to battleships and from MINI Cooper to monster trucks… every form of motorised transport eventually ran on oil.

Today, transport needs to change again… transport needs to radically reduce emissions to limit global warming and improve the quality of the air we breathe. Some say batteries will triumph this time. According to the International Energy Agency – or IEA – the total number of battery electric cars in the world will increase from about 3 million today to 280 million in 2040. This sounds like another Spindletop moment for transport… a moment of sudden change… but it is not. Because the IEA expects the total number of cars to grow to 2 billion by 2040.

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Working together to achieve change

by with No Comment Future

Speaking at the virtual event Energy Visions, Huibert Vigeveno, Shell’s Director of Downstream, outlines the importance of working across sectors to achieve lasting change.

Thank you for the introduction Aitor, and thank you all for joining this event… Whether it is virtually, or in person at the studio… Whether you are watching right now, or perhaps a little later. In fact, those different ways show me how ingenious, determined and versatile society can be when there is so much at stake. Whether we face challenges as serious as Covid-19 or climate change… we know we have to keep talking to each other, working together and finding the best ways to take action.

The European Union’s Green Deal is an excellent example of the kind of action the world needs to tackle climate change. Shell supports its target of achieving climate neutrality by 2050. This target means finding ways to stop adding to the stock of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in just a few decades – in other words, achieving net zero emissions… and doing it very, very fast.

Last week, President von der Leyen announced the increase of the EU’s 2030 climate target to a 55% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. This is a huge challenge… But it is one that Shell supports. The 55% target would put the EU on a clear path towards climate neutrality. It would also provide the long-term certainty that business needs to invest in lower-carbon projects.

In practice, this goal requires decisive policy action… Action to cut emissions at a faster rate across all sectors at the same time… and to support the industrial competitiveness of the EU. And it is here that the Economic Recovery Instrument has a key role to play. The EU’s Emissions Trading System would also need reform. Industry in the EU must be kept competitive in relation to carbon costs.

And finally, a sectoral approach will be crucial to success and should be at the heart of the Green Deal. This approach is about identifying a path to net zero for each sector – and I will explain how later. The challenge may be great… but the Green Deal is one way to turn ambitious plans into urgent action.

And we all need to take urgent action. Shell’s own ambition is to be a net-zero emissions energy business by 2050 or sooner, in step with society and our customers. We will work towards this in three ways. First, we aim to be net-zero emissions from making our products. Second, we seek to reduce the carbon intensity of the products we sell. This will mean selling more hydrogen, more biofuels, more renewable electricity. Finally, we, as a business that supplies energy, will work with sectors that use energy… like aviation, heavy freight and shipping. We will help them find their own path to net zero. And this is the sectoral approach that I will outline.

Our ambition will mean working with others in a way and at a scale we have not seen before. And the business plans we have today… will not make Shell’s ambition a reality. Over time, those plans will have to change, as society and our customers also change.